election 2008

i had a thought.

mr. harper has not been campaigning very hard this election it would seem. perhaps im just not watching as much tv as i used to. but how about this:

about 2 weeks ago we learned through the polls that we would likely be getting another minority government. a conservative minority government will not likely last more than a couple of years. the next party to call the election is going to be very unpopular. 300 million dollars per federal election. thats the cost to canadian taxpayers every time we go to the polls.

if the liberals get a minority, Harper can bide his time in the opposition. this is advantageous to him because:
1 - the economy may not do so well over the next two years. during that time unemployment may rise, investment in canada may diminish, and all the nasty effects of a recession will unfold.
2- as opposition leader, rather than leader of the country, mr harper could effectively harangue and harass the governing liberals. he would get the people behind him - "those bloody liberals, look at our economy!"

Conclusion: Layton and Duceppe would evenutally jump into the foray (although i have feeling that duceppe will retire before the next federal election. i would say in about 2 years. he wants his party to have a leader in the event of a snap election.). anyways, layton and duceppe would start calling on the government to do more, etc. they would stop supporting them in the House and before long they would be forced to call an election.

Canadians: "Another election? 300 more million dollars! Bloody hell. these liberals. look at our country! look at our economy!"

Harper: "the Conservatives offer Canadians the solution they've been looking for. on ___, 2011 vote for us!"

and thus he would likely get his majority. perhaps this is why he's not campaigning so hard. any party that inherits the economy right now will likely be extremely unpopular in 2 years.